Looking through the presentations at the JISC digitisation conference, I was interested to read the following prediction from Peter Kaufman [ppt]:

Over the next 13 years:



an iPod or a device its size will be able to hold:
  • a year’s worth of video (8,760 hours) by 2012 (5 years from now)
  • all the commercial music ever created by 2015 (8 years), and
  • all the content ever created (in all media) by 2020 (13 years).
[Peter Kaufman. Online digital video – educational developments and opportunities. ppt]

We are now in an Internet phase of large informational hubs on the web, massive aggregations of content and services. It is quite a centralized environment. It will be interesting to see how patterns of use change as devices evolve as Peter discusses. At some stage in the near future, I assume, we will be shipping large amounts of content around to people on small devices. We could give people their own library, which synchs up from time to time with various services?

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Comments: 2

Jul 26, 2007
Laurence Lockton

I wonder if Peter based this prediction on all the content that has been created by now, or will have been created by 2020 :-)

Jul 29, 2007
Eric Lease Morgan

As more and more content can be stored on smaller and smaller devices, I often ask myself, "What is the role of a library when the entire collection can be carried around in one's pocket?" I answer myself by saying, "While library collections will continue to be important, the provision of services against the collections will increase in importance." Everybody will have the collection, providing value-added services against the collection represents a growth opportunity for the profession.

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Eric Lease Morgan
University Libraries of Notre Dame